J’ai effectué des simulations pour la prochaine loterie de repêchage de 2023 pour le choix MTL et le choix FLO et Montréal a actuellement 0,302% de repêchage à la fois 1OA et 2OA.
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DrFrankinStein93
@Canadiens de Montréal
5 Comments
Hi everyone. Like most of the people here, I was curious of knowing what were the draft lottery odds for Montreal.
Normally, there is a lot of website crunching the numbers for us. But this year is special since we have 2 picks worthy of winning the lottery.
Sadly, I didn’t see those specific odds anywhere…
So I decided to run the number myself. With the help of current lottery odds (I used Tankathon’s one), I wrote a quick and dirty C# script and ran 1M simulations.
Then, I put the results in Excel and created this simple chart to see what are the odds for each possible draft position for both MTL pick and FLO pick.
For the curious, here’s the [link](https://dotnetfiddle.net/oJvpuL) to the code. It is messy and not optimal but it does the job and it is the only think I wanted.
**My opinion part:**
While not really realist, I still excited that it is in theory possible to draft both the 1OA and 2OA.
On a more realist but still optimist way, we still have 15.362% chance of either drafting 1OA or 2OA. That about the same odds as rolling a 6 on a d6 dice! All on what most people expect to be a deep draft this year!!!
So the most realistic scenario is we choose 9 11…….
………..so you’re saying there’s a chance!
Tankaton simmed me exactly this yesterday! Happening for sure!
Do we still have the option of drafting between the 20-30 draft pick this year (Monahan trade)