There was a point in time where it looked like Granato had something (their xGF% was > 50), but they have really struggled since then. [Money puck](https://moneypuck.com/lines.htm) has the Olofsson-Jost-Mittelstadt line as the 9th worst xGF% line and 4th worst in actual goals (minimum 65 TOI). The screenshot is from evolving hockey.
thebenson
What’s the sample size for both lines? How much time have they spent together?
seeldoger47
Also, should note that the line of grinders who play a 200 ft game get better results (69 xGF% and 50 GF% for Girgensons-Jost-Okposo) than the line with two players who are perceived as being skilled (35 xGF% and 20 GF% for Olofsson-Jost-Mittelstadt).
BARDLER
Its amazing how often Mitts and Olofsson are sub 40% xGF game to game.
DennisSystemofADown
Jost centering krebs and biro. Mitts and oloffson to presser
scaredwhiteboy1
Ah, yes, numbers… my old nemesis. I see lots of 1’s and 3’s and even some 6’s. I have no idea what any of them mean, but I see them.
dasokay
I’m not gonna buy into this too much personally, given the sample sizes involved thus far. The best analogue I have: Skinner-Thompson-Okposo has played 41 minutes, with an expected goals percentage 9 points higher than Skinner-Thompson-Tuch. But we won’t find anyone arguing Okposo should play top line over Tuch. I know you haven’t explicitly said you want Jost returned to the Okposo line, but that seems like what you’re indicating here.
Similarly, I don’t like using GF% to argue against the current third line. The 5v5 GF% for Mitts-Jost-Olof looks very bad at ~20%, but it’s only 1 goal for vs. 4 against. Girgs-Jost-Okposo, meanwhile, has 1 goal for and 1 against. They also usually play with the first or second defensive pairing, while I see the Mitts line frequently paired with the third defensive pairing. The GF% spread isn’t enough information to base decisions on IMO.
phatsystem
Recently Mitts has looked better, but not sure if it translates to xGF%. I wonder if there’s enough data to look at Mitts away from Olofsson in recent games to see if it’s supported by data.
the_missing_worker
C’mon now, if we hadn’t listened to the reddit hivemind we’d still have great players like Colin Miller, Cody Eakin, and Marco Scandella on the roster.
You really want to fire Mitts into the sun just because reddit AND advanced stats says so?
9 Comments
There was a point in time where it looked like Granato had something (their xGF% was > 50), but they have really struggled since then. [Money puck](https://moneypuck.com/lines.htm) has the Olofsson-Jost-Mittelstadt line as the 9th worst xGF% line and 4th worst in actual goals (minimum 65 TOI). The screenshot is from evolving hockey.
What’s the sample size for both lines? How much time have they spent together?
Also, should note that the line of grinders who play a 200 ft game get better results (69 xGF% and 50 GF% for Girgensons-Jost-Okposo) than the line with two players who are perceived as being skilled (35 xGF% and 20 GF% for Olofsson-Jost-Mittelstadt).
Its amazing how often Mitts and Olofsson are sub 40% xGF game to game.
Jost centering krebs and biro. Mitts and oloffson to presser
Ah, yes, numbers… my old nemesis. I see lots of 1’s and 3’s and even some 6’s. I have no idea what any of them mean, but I see them.
I’m not gonna buy into this too much personally, given the sample sizes involved thus far. The best analogue I have: Skinner-Thompson-Okposo has played 41 minutes, with an expected goals percentage 9 points higher than Skinner-Thompson-Tuch. But we won’t find anyone arguing Okposo should play top line over Tuch. I know you haven’t explicitly said you want Jost returned to the Okposo line, but that seems like what you’re indicating here.
Similarly, I don’t like using GF% to argue against the current third line. The 5v5 GF% for Mitts-Jost-Olof looks very bad at ~20%, but it’s only 1 goal for vs. 4 against. Girgs-Jost-Okposo, meanwhile, has 1 goal for and 1 against. They also usually play with the first or second defensive pairing, while I see the Mitts line frequently paired with the third defensive pairing. The GF% spread isn’t enough information to base decisions on IMO.
Recently Mitts has looked better, but not sure if it translates to xGF%. I wonder if there’s enough data to look at Mitts away from Olofsson in recent games to see if it’s supported by data.
C’mon now, if we hadn’t listened to the reddit hivemind we’d still have great players like Colin Miller, Cody Eakin, and Marco Scandella on the roster.
You really want to fire Mitts into the sun just because reddit AND advanced stats says so?
(kidding)