64% against a quality team is actually an amazing stat and speaks to a heavy amount of variance. as much as I wish the leafs could have won this one for dangle, the “FYORRR DOOFAS” sky is falling stuff is just ridiculous.
Niclmaki
Numbers are statistics don’t make me feel hardly anything tho. Goals and winning and losing do tho.
While statistics are good, I don’t think the leafs were close to matching Boston for majority of the game. In the 2nd period the leafs were pretty caved in our d zone and that Lily + Sandin shift that resulted in a goal was probably their worst shift of the year. Was there moments we looked good in this game? Yes, definitely, but the major problem is that we can’t find ways to win in these tight situations or adapt our play style to win. Good teams like Boston, Tampa, and Carolina are amazing at playing various styles including heavy pressure which seems to be the Leafs kryptonite, not good considering heavy gameplay is basically the playoffs. I’m kind of tired of seeing this deserve to win o meter thing after a loss, it doesn’t paint the picture of the actual game.
FatStupidOldMan
One of the occasions that it is absolutely clear the stats are not tethered to reality. At BEST this meter should have been 50%, a coin toss. No one who is paying attention would say Toronto has almost double the odds of winning over Boston.
You would have to be smoking some really good stuff to believe the Leafs had 30% point over the Bruins. That number is absolutely not rooted in reality.
CTHT07
MoneyPuck had the Leafs as only allowing 1 xGA in the 1st. That is simply wrong. No tool is perfect, and like with most analytics it’s better with a larger sample size. Leafs got completely outplayed tonight.
DangleWho
Just a very rough game from sammy
whatamidoing_2521
Remember that game last year the leafs lost 8-1 to Tampa or whatever it was?
Am I remembering completely wrong or was the deserve-to-win o-meter damn near close to 50%-50%?
Tonight was a night where the advanced numbers just *don’t* tell an accurate story.
kingex11
If this doesn’t prove that eye test still matters, nothing will.
Friggin_Grease
I love the deserve to win-o-meter. I respect it more than actual dubs
vec-u64-new
The Leafs had playoff games where we deserved to win against the Habs, Jackets, and Boston. Are we supposed to hang a banner?
thedrunkentendy
Yeah pretty much the same issue last time we played them. Just a few self inflicted wounds.
What killed me was watching sandin diddle around before the 2nd goal. Normally he’s money for a sinple breakout pass but I don’t know if he was stalling for a line change, but he forced it to simmonds who had a guy on him and if lead to the possession on that 2nd goal.
We’re 1-2 on the season against them, could be 3 and 0 if they could tighten up.
Missing one of Brodie and Matthews also makes thise games efforts still impressive. The team isn’t perfect but ita damn near one of the best in the league. Apparently in a 5-2 loss to the bruins some stats can show that.
I think what’s crazy with the deadline options is I honestly don’t know where the best upgrade option is this year.
sokocanuck
This tracks for me.
I thought the Leafs were as good or better than the Bruins for most of the game.
Sammy just had an off night. It happens.
The Bruins are taking up zero of my thoughts this year. Earliest we’ll see them will be round 2 and there is a massive mountain 19 years in the making that needs to be climbed first
UkeManSteve
Honestly fuck the deserve to win-o-meter, I’m tired of it being pull out every time we choke in the playoffs. This game is not a huge deal to me but eventually you need just get the results. There’s no trophy for deserving to win the cup
Bennely
This is a lot of copium to consume here. Bruins had the Leafs’ number last night and it was obvious. In fact, the Leafs, Leafs media, and the city of Toronto, was single-handedly owned by Brad Marchand before he even stepped on the ice. Deserve to win? Uhhhhhh….
Candymanshook
Probably looks that way because the Bruins didn’t really generate that many amazing scoring chances but scored a bunch of perimeter goals with low xG
Infamous_Bus1578
Lol apparently you’re delusional and you should actually watch the game, according to some ppl here
uncleherman77
It sort of reminded me of the usual big game or game 7 script. Create lots of chances and feel like you should have won but never finish them then have the other team simply shoot the puck and of course get the lucky bounce in these games the Leafs never seem to get. I think they’ve lost four in a row to divisional rivals now,hope I’m wrong but I don’t have a lot of confidence this is the year they win a round.
McJoe77
This looks good. Samsonov fell apart and that’s why the Leafs lost. Samsonov hasn’t played 8 games in a row in forever (if ever?) so it makes sense he was a bit tired or whatever, but he was bad after a fantastic first period.
SMORKIN_LABBIT
Sammy had a shit game, a few of those were really ugly and then the team fell apart late in the 3rd defensively. You can’t give this Boston team a millimeter but honestly teams can’t do the same for the Leafs.
Babock93
Samsonov started strong; but he’s got to save Atleast 1 of those first 4 goals.
They were not good goals
CommanderTouchdown
xG models shouldn’t be used for single game evaluations.
Someone like Engvall bonking it into a goalie’s pads counts as the highest xG possible without scoring. Leafs had a bunch of empty calorie looks from guys like Kerfoot and Engvall.
Classic chase game where the Leafs were down for the majority and Boston just feed off their breakdowns.
Bobbyoot47
I’d like to see a Deserve To Sink A Putt O’metre and apply it to my golf game. It would be in the negative region.
StockWillingness2748
This kind of stuff is nonsense. I was at the game and Toronto was slow, couldn’t pass, couldn’t defend, and couldn’t get in synch. They had shots because Boston let them have shots because they were winning. Toronto chased the game for 80% of the night. I always figured the game in person would be fast but this game was slow. What stats and video doesn’t show is how the play develops away from the puck. Boston players always knew what was going to happen, where the puck was going to go. Leafs were reacting the entire game but a few minutes.
For the past 5 years people always find games like this and say it’s meaningless. It doesn’t mean anything because X, Y or Z. For the past 5 years they’ve gotten the same results in the post season. These games may not be as often as years ago but they mean more than others care to admit. Sure they were without matthews or muzzin but they likely wouldn’t have made a difference with how the other 17 players were playing.
23 Comments
64% against a quality team is actually an amazing stat and speaks to a heavy amount of variance. as much as I wish the leafs could have won this one for dangle, the “FYORRR DOOFAS” sky is falling stuff is just ridiculous.
Numbers are statistics don’t make me feel hardly anything tho. Goals and winning and losing do tho.
[Comic](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FO3NZ17XoAAAt6-?format=jpg&name=large)
While statistics are good, I don’t think the leafs were close to matching Boston for majority of the game. In the 2nd period the leafs were pretty caved in our d zone and that Lily + Sandin shift that resulted in a goal was probably their worst shift of the year. Was there moments we looked good in this game? Yes, definitely, but the major problem is that we can’t find ways to win in these tight situations or adapt our play style to win. Good teams like Boston, Tampa, and Carolina are amazing at playing various styles including heavy pressure which seems to be the Leafs kryptonite, not good considering heavy gameplay is basically the playoffs. I’m kind of tired of seeing this deserve to win o meter thing after a loss, it doesn’t paint the picture of the actual game.
One of the occasions that it is absolutely clear the stats are not tethered to reality. At BEST this meter should have been 50%, a coin toss. No one who is paying attention would say Toronto has almost double the odds of winning over Boston.
You would have to be smoking some really good stuff to believe the Leafs had 30% point over the Bruins. That number is absolutely not rooted in reality.
MoneyPuck had the Leafs as only allowing 1 xGA in the 1st. That is simply wrong. No tool is perfect, and like with most analytics it’s better with a larger sample size. Leafs got completely outplayed tonight.
Just a very rough game from sammy
Remember that game last year the leafs lost 8-1 to Tampa or whatever it was?
Am I remembering completely wrong or was the deserve-to-win o-meter damn near close to 50%-50%?
Tonight was a night where the advanced numbers just *don’t* tell an accurate story.
If this doesn’t prove that eye test still matters, nothing will.
I love the deserve to win-o-meter. I respect it more than actual dubs
The Leafs had playoff games where we deserved to win against the Habs, Jackets, and Boston. Are we supposed to hang a banner?
Yeah pretty much the same issue last time we played them. Just a few self inflicted wounds.
What killed me was watching sandin diddle around before the 2nd goal. Normally he’s money for a sinple breakout pass but I don’t know if he was stalling for a line change, but he forced it to simmonds who had a guy on him and if lead to the possession on that 2nd goal.
We’re 1-2 on the season against them, could be 3 and 0 if they could tighten up.
Missing one of Brodie and Matthews also makes thise games efforts still impressive. The team isn’t perfect but ita damn near one of the best in the league. Apparently in a 5-2 loss to the bruins some stats can show that.
I think what’s crazy with the deadline options is I honestly don’t know where the best upgrade option is this year.
This tracks for me.
I thought the Leafs were as good or better than the Bruins for most of the game.
Sammy just had an off night. It happens.
The Bruins are taking up zero of my thoughts this year. Earliest we’ll see them will be round 2 and there is a massive mountain 19 years in the making that needs to be climbed first
Honestly fuck the deserve to win-o-meter, I’m tired of it being pull out every time we choke in the playoffs. This game is not a huge deal to me but eventually you need just get the results. There’s no trophy for deserving to win the cup
This is a lot of copium to consume here. Bruins had the Leafs’ number last night and it was obvious. In fact, the Leafs, Leafs media, and the city of Toronto, was single-handedly owned by Brad Marchand before he even stepped on the ice. Deserve to win? Uhhhhhh….
Probably looks that way because the Bruins didn’t really generate that many amazing scoring chances but scored a bunch of perimeter goals with low xG
Lol apparently you’re delusional and you should actually watch the game, according to some ppl here
It sort of reminded me of the usual big game or game 7 script. Create lots of chances and feel like you should have won but never finish them then have the other team simply shoot the puck and of course get the lucky bounce in these games the Leafs never seem to get. I think they’ve lost four in a row to divisional rivals now,hope I’m wrong but I don’t have a lot of confidence this is the year they win a round.
This looks good. Samsonov fell apart and that’s why the Leafs lost. Samsonov hasn’t played 8 games in a row in forever (if ever?) so it makes sense he was a bit tired or whatever, but he was bad after a fantastic first period.
Sammy had a shit game, a few of those were really ugly and then the team fell apart late in the 3rd defensively. You can’t give this Boston team a millimeter but honestly teams can’t do the same for the Leafs.
Samsonov started strong; but he’s got to save Atleast 1 of those first 4 goals.
They were not good goals
xG models shouldn’t be used for single game evaluations.
Someone like Engvall bonking it into a goalie’s pads counts as the highest xG possible without scoring. Leafs had a bunch of empty calorie looks from guys like Kerfoot and Engvall.
Classic chase game where the Leafs were down for the majority and Boston just feed off their breakdowns.
I’d like to see a Deserve To Sink A Putt O’metre and apply it to my golf game. It would be in the negative region.
This kind of stuff is nonsense. I was at the game and Toronto was slow, couldn’t pass, couldn’t defend, and couldn’t get in synch. They had shots because Boston let them have shots because they were winning. Toronto chased the game for 80% of the night. I always figured the game in person would be fast but this game was slow. What stats and video doesn’t show is how the play develops away from the puck. Boston players always knew what was going to happen, where the puck was going to go. Leafs were reacting the entire game but a few minutes.
For the past 5 years people always find games like this and say it’s meaningless. It doesn’t mean anything because X, Y or Z. For the past 5 years they’ve gotten the same results in the post season. These games may not be as often as years ago but they mean more than others care to admit. Sure they were without matthews or muzzin but they likely wouldn’t have made a difference with how the other 17 players were playing.