[Stephen Valiquette]Rapport sur les chances de marquer @NYRangers à @Canes (NYR 2,92 xG contre Car 2,48xG) #NYR
✍️ Scoring Chances Report @NYRangers at @Canes #NYR
Data Courtesy of @csahockey pic.twitter.com/qhFLuauiEz
— Stephen Valiquette (@VallysView) March 24, 2023
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elfinito77
4 Comments
Quality vs. Quantity.
Was debating with a few folks in post game and in-game thread that seemed to think that Carolina totally dominated that game, and that it was a « steal » by Igor.
Igor was great — and the 2-on-1 blocker save is one I can watch over and over – It was just filthy. (and likely a game saver — the game momentum seemed to turn after that save. To be fair — Andersen made some saves when it was 1-1/2-1 that would have also been « game savers » had Carolina found a way to get it tied))
But – overall – Other than the 2-1, and Oshi’s goal — Car basically was just throwing garbage at the net all night.
The Rangers had less shots, but had 5-6 really high danger chances (such as — Off the top my head — both goals, Panarin’s chance (and rebound) on the Mikkola drop pass, Tro’s post, Laf’s Break-away, Senko’s 2 power moves)
I’d like to see the breakdown by period. Were there shots so empty calorie that we were constituently running a higher xG all game, or did they just completely fall apart at the end.
And more importantly, Moneypuck had it completely backwards, with NYR 1.87 xG vs CAR 2.64 xG. Publicly available advanced stats are complete garbage. It takes what Clear Sight Analytics is doing, tracking literally every single shot attempt in every single game, by hand, to paint a complete picture with advanced stats.
Until public advanced stats can account for pre-shot movement and goaltender quality, it will continue to be trash.
I think Carolina is worse-than-average against good goalies, because their high shot volume strategy requires the opposing goalie to flub a bunch of easy saves if they actually want to score more than 2 goals. Igor…. just doesn’t do that.
It also means advanced analytics loves them because once you factor in all the 1% shots, the models say they should have scored 5 goals, not taking into account the skill level of the opposing goalie. This might work against lesser opponents, but will stall out when you face real competition. I wonder what their record is against Boston and Tampa — teams that are good in their own right, but are like us in that their goalies don’t let in softies ever.
The Canes are still a good team because they have strong team defense, but we’ve been a real thorn in their side and it can’t really be chalked up to luck anymore.