[https://theathletic.com/4654648/2023/06/30/auston-matthews-william-nylanders-maple-leafs/](https://theathletic.com/4654648/2023/06/30/auston-matthews-william-nylanders-maple-leafs/) ** Matthews : ** La complication est que Matthews n’est pas disposé à accepter le statu quo pour les joueurs de son acabit – pensez à Nathan MacKinnon – en ce qui concerne son prochain contrat. On nous dit qu’il veut être récompensé comme l’un des meilleurs joueurs de la ligue, un joueur de 25 ans avec un trophée Hart, deux trophées Rocket Richard et plusieurs apparitions au All-Star Game. L’environnement de capitalisation en hausse rapide est l’élément clé de cette complication. Le plafond salarial est peut-être la chose la plus importante à retenir pour savoir où cela va. La croyance est que Matthews et son agent, Judd Moldaver, veulent que son troisième contrat dans la LNH représente un plafond qui devrait atteindre 87,5 millions de dollars à l’automne 2024, lorsque le nouvel accord entrera en vigueur, et ne devrait augmenter qu’à partir de là, jusqu’à cinq pour cent par an. Ce qui signifie un plafond atteint qui diminuera au cours de la durée du contrat. C’est pourquoi il est probable qu’ils envisagent un contrat d’une durée de deux à cinq ans. Le point idéal, tant pour Matthews que pour les Leafs, pourrait être un contrat de cinq ans avec un plafond record, supérieur à la valeur moyenne annuelle de 12,6 millions de dollars de MacKinnon. Un contrat de cinq ans rachèterait l’intégralité de la prime de Matthews, ses 27, 28, 29, 30 et 31 saisons. Cela pourrait également briser le précédent pour ces types de contrats. Les Leafs pourraient envisager un montant aussi élevé que 14,5 millions de dollars sur le plafond d’un contrat de cinq ans. Ce qui semble évidemment élevé. Mais considérez la façon dont le pourcentage d’atteinte du plafond peut diminuer au cours de la durée de l’accord à mesure que le plafond augmente : ​ ; |Année|Cap atteint %|Plafond de plafond potentiel (M)| |:-|:-|:-| |1|16,6|87,5 $| |2|15,5|91,9 $| |3|15|96,5 $| |4|14,3|101,3 $| |5|13,6|106,4 $| Ce plafond atteint un pourcentage de 16,6% la première année correspondrait à peu près aux 16,7% que McDavid a marqués la première année de son contrat actuel de huit ans. (McDavid obtiendra environ 15% du plafond la saison prochaine.) Mais il finit par tomber à moins de 14% d’ici la dernière saison. À titre de comparaison, le plafond de 11 millions de dollars atteint par John Tavares valait 13,8% du plafond lorsque les Leafs l’ont signé pour un contrat de sept ans en 2018. Même à son meilleur niveau, il ne s’est jamais rapproché de Matthews en tant qu’interprète pour les Leafs. . La croyance est également que Matthews pourrait envisager un accord de sept ou même huit ans, mais seulement si l’accord s’accompagnait d’un plafond qui expliquait où va le plafond, et non où il se trouve aujourd’hui. Un accord de huit ans, par exemple, pourrait s’accompagner d’un plafond de 16 millions de dollars, compte tenu de l’augmentation prévue du plafond. Ce qui, encore une fois, semble beaucoup. Mais à la fin de l’accord, le plafond pourrait être bien supérieur à 120 millions de dollars, ce qui représente un pourcentage d’atteinte du plafond d’environ 13% lors de la dernière saison. Maintenant, évidemment, un plafond de 16 millions de dollars atteint dans le climat de plafond de l’année prochaine rendrait les choses difficiles pour Toronto, c’est pourquoi il est logique pour les deux parties de réduire le terme pour un plafond inférieur. Un coup de cap inférieur aidera les Leafs à compléter l’équipe autour de Matthews. **Nylander :** L’agent de Nylander, Lewis Gross, a rencontré Treliving pendant la semaine de repêchage à Nashville. Ce n’était pas la seule fois qu’ils parlaient du prochain contrat de Nylander. Celui-ci est encore plus épineux que Matthews. C’est parce que a) Nylander a une clause de non-échange de 10 équipes qui entre en vigueur le 1er juillet, ce qui met un délai souple sur les négociations pour les Leafs et b) semble chercher plus d’argent que les Leafs ne sont prêts à payer. Nylander veut être une Feuille. Il l’a dit à Treliving et au président de l’équipe, Brendan Shanahan. Il veut également être équitablement rémunéré, en particulier par rapport à ses collègues stars de Leaf qu’il a sans doute surpassés en séries éliminatoires. Si les Leafs veulent garder Nylander, ils doivent trouver un moyen de faire en sorte que tout fonctionne sous le plafond salarial. Mais quel est le numéro de départ des Leafs pour Nylander? Et si Nylander cherchait un cap à deux chiffres qui le rapprochait de Matthews, Marner et Tavares ? Si les Leafs ne sont pas disposés à y aller, ou même dans une fourchette de plus de 9 millions de dollars, vont-ils pivoter avant que cette clause de non-échange n’entre en vigueur? En d’autres termes, échangeront-ils Nylander *vendredi* ? Est-ce même possible si vous le faites correctement? Ou les Leafs continueront-ils de travailler au-delà du 1er juillet et risquent-ils de limiter le bassin de prétendants s’ils ne parviennent pas à un accord ? Pourraient-ils envisager de laisser Nylander jouer la dernière année de son contrat actuel, qui porte un plafond (6,96 millions de dollars) qui se classe actuellement au 96e rang dans la LNH pour la saison prochaine? Une partie du problème pour les Leafs est que le camp de Nylander ne semble pas voir le 1er juillet comme une date limite. Le 1er juillet prochain, lorsque l’accord actuel de Nylander expire, est leur date limite.
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malliabu
44 Comments
> The Leafs could be looking at a number as high as $14.5 million on the cap on a five-year deal.
What ever happened to that story that said Matthews wanted to leave some salary cap available for other guys so the team could be competitive?
the pro-labour part of me wants AM34 & willy to push this team and league for all they are worth, especially with the artificial nonsense that is the hard cap.
the leafs fan in me asks why this had to be literally only us that has to deal with this lol
Fucking trade him. Clearly doesn’t want to be a Leaf
I hate how much of the Toronto media seems to carry water for the players. They must be trying to protect their sources/relationships going forward. There are a lot of bad faith arguments here – like comparing to UFA John Tavares.
Bottom line, the Leafs aren’t winning a cup with Matthews as the highest paid player in the league. Forecasted cap increases, or what another team might pay him don’t matter on the ice. If Matthews gets a number like 14, then what’s Marner and Nylander going to ask for? How are they going to beat a team like the Devils or the Avalanche where the top players already have taken discounts and term to stay?
I just hope this article is mostly speculation.
With Nylander I can at understand his perspective. Why should he leave money on the table when the two guys ahead of him aren’t? It starts from the top not the middle. If anything he has always been adamant of wanting to be a Maple Leaf and has negotiated in good faith.
Matthews is honestly baffling as he is the only top end player thinking liking this. Even this off-season with the knowledge of the cap everyone else is signing 8 year contracts not bridge contracts then waiting for another payday. It’s also not even a true bridge cause he still wants the payday with the less term.
The more I think about Matthews, the more I’m warming up to a smaller term, 4 or 5 years. To one of the points above, a 5 year deals guarantees Matthews through his prime.
Keep in mind, a 5 year deal means we’ve got Matthews the next 6 seasons. That carries him through age 31. There’s just no guarantee these days when a player’s skill will begin to dip. And Matthews already has an injury history. The next wrist injury could really hamper his ability to score.
For example, Nate MacKinnon is locked up for 8 years. And I’m sure the next 5 years of that contract are going to be fantastic. But what about age 33? 34? 35?
We’re seeing it now, sort of, with Tavares. Now to be clear, IMO, JT has done exactly what he’s been paid to do… we all just auto assumed we’d have a cup by now. But yeah, here we are the last 2-3 years of the deal, and you’d realistically probably walk away, if you could.
To me, the 8 year deal makes the most sense for a player coming out of entry level. That’s 8 years through their entire prime.
The cap hit is what I’m really struggling to accept. Typically less years bring the cost down, because you’re not buying up UFA years. So it’s extremely frustrating to think about paying Matthews a huge cap hit for less term.
Fuck they make it so hard to genuinely cheer for them.
I will honestly be disappointed with anything but 8 years for Matthews. You don’t get to be perennial post season disappointments and get to be paid better than the best player in the league at the same time.
But I thought he wanted a contract so the Leafs could build a team around him… Haha. They talked the same talk when they signed the core before. « The cap is going to rise over the length of the contract and the contract will start to look good ». But the cap never went up. And they’re predicting the cap to rise to 120 mill? Wut
Awesome. They’ve taken our team hostage because we’ve been handing out free cheques. 5 years of playoff blunder and we’re now stuck with this.
Gonna be depressing when McDavid takes less than Matthews on his next deal.
Also, didn’t we learn anything about assuming the cap will increase during these short-term high AAV deals? Even if the cap is increasing how they say, our core is still taking all they can out of it and leaving the same percentage to fill out the rest of the team. There’s no way they can de-emphasize the core when they do stuff like this.
Matthews is being very clear here in expressing what is important to Matthews.
TLDR: we’re fucked
Man it sucks when you love the team but hate the players that represent it
I really think this is going to be the end of this fan bases patience with this core. I feel like a lot of fans are nearing a point of saying “screw it, it’s time to start over, rebuilds don’t take as long as they used to.”
Those Matthews cap percentages are fucking gross even in the later years. I really wish he wasn’t such a greedy guy.
Shoutout to Jonas for predicating this whole article on a mistake. McDavid’s cap% in Year 1 of his extension was not 16.6%, it was 15.7%.
The salary cap in 2018-19 was $79.5M and McDavid made $12.5M against the cap (15.7%). The 16.6% number is the price of McDavid’s extension vs. the salary cap when he signed it, in 2017-18 ($75M). If that’s the math we’re using for Matthews’s extension, the project $87.5M cap for 2024-25 is irrelevant, and we should be using this upcoming seasons’s $83.5M, 16.6% of which is $13.86M.
If Matthews doesn’t want to sign an 8-yr extension for $13.86M — hell, let’s round that up to $14M so he gets *more* than McDavid — that’s fine. But *that’s* the applicable calculation.
I think there are three other really relevant points to remember here:
1) Matthews is not as good as McDavid, full stop. He’s got an argument for #2 player in the world, but he is not McDavid.
2) [McDavid took less.](https://twitter.com/TSNBobMcKenzie/status/882674157439275008) He was reportedly signing for $13.25M, but lowered that number to $12.5M to help the Oilers compete.
3) McDavid *also* signed into a year of massive cap growth. The cap jumped 6.00% between the year McDavid signed his extension and when it took effect.
So, taking that all into account, I simply reject the (apparent) argument from the Matthews camp. If the numbers that are being reported here are accurate, it’s an unprecedented contract for an inferior player. Trying to spin it as team-friendly, especially at 3-5 years, is horseshit.
Oh ya and how do you account for the next salary cap binding world crisis?
Matthews argument about the McKinnon deal starting earlier is bogus if he only signs for 4-5 years. Because all of those years would have been under contract (at the same cap limit) as McKinnon. The only way he can argue for higher cap limits than McKinnon is if he signs for 8 years, and then he would have 1 of the 8 seasons at a higher future cap value.
They have every right to ask for these numbers, and I have every right to call them entitled and hope we trade this core for guys that actually want to be here
The more I hear about the demands and personality of these guys the more I’m convinced we aren’t winning anything.
Trade marner
Remember when you could simply watch hockey and enjoy the on-ice product without having to break out Excel and financial models and comparisons that inform how much you should « like a player »? I miss those days
Leaf’s will never win if they keep drafting greedy people.
Yea, I don’t think the team is going to win anything with Matthews eating up an absurd amount of the cap.
It’s a shame; he is not the player or leader people expected him to be.
I realize this is all a part of negotiating, but it’s weird to me that this article seems to suggest that 14M-14.5M for Matthews is « not the end of the world » but 9.25M for Nylander is « TRADE HIM BEFORE JULY 1ST! »
We shouldn’t take it for granted that the cap will rise so much over the course of 5 or 8 years, regardless of how likely it may seem. Dubas did that the first time around and it completely handcuffed us once Covid happened, which no one was predicting. Maybe something similar happens or maybe TV revenues aren’t as great as they thought with fans changing viewing habits. Gambling ads could get banned if there is some major scandal. To negotiate on the basis that the cap will be over 105M in 5 years is really risking a lot.
Why stop there, give Auston 16.7×8 and Mitch the same, Willie 12×8 and see how they like their AHL team going forward
Have some damn courage, dignity and self respect and move on from this core. Look at what Florida just did on their run with a couple stars and a balanced roster. Look at what Seattle in year 2 with no stars and great work ethic. The world won’t end if you move these clowns. I truly can’t stand them and would ship them out of town today for the best return possible.
So McDavid was 16.7% of the cap in year 1 of his 8 year deal. With a projected 87.5 M cap, Matthews equivalent contract would be 14.6 M x 8. Except we are being told it will be 14.5 M x 5 or $16 M x 8?
Let Matthews walk.
I don’t care.
if it gets to the point where one of these players wants a huge contract AND this or that coach AND this or that guy kept on the team AND …. i think we’d be better off trading
Willy at 9 for 8 and Austin at 13 for 5. Anything more is too much for either of them.
This is an infuriatingly bad article.
Why are they acting like this is the first contract in the history of the league to be signed with the expectation of a rising cap. Between 05-06 and 19-20 the cap went up on average by more than 5% per year. Every single contract has been signed with the knowledge that the cap is going to increase over the life of the deal and the only hiccup has been an entirely unforseen once in a century pandemic.
A comparison of what Matthews’ contract as a % of the cap might be in its final year compared to what Tavares signed at in his initial year is so utterly meaningless. Guess what, Mackinnon’s contract might be as low as 10% of the cap when it ends. Pastrnak is going to be under 10%. You could go on, and on, and on. The only reason McDavid’s is going to stay high is because of unforseen events. Had the cap followed the same trend it had for the decade+ prior to his deal, he’d be looking at about 11% in his final year. Author is also mistaking the cap hit % of McDavid’s deal when his extension was signed a year early (16.7%) with the cap hit % in the first year of the contract (15.7%).
Why is it that every other player in the league seems to be able to get a reasonable deal done in line with peers while we’re expected to perform quantum physics to justify these guys? He shouldn’t be making anything more than $12.5m, anything over $13m is simply an atrocious contract and I’m not going to bend over backwards to pretend its not.
Edit: And I say this mostly toward the author, not the player. Until the deal is signed, I’m refusing to believe this nonsense.
Does Matthews want to win a cup or get paid? I guess we will find out.
Fuck em both. The Toronto hockey market is toxic in every way. Fans want players like MacKinnon, etc that understand it’s not just all about them. Players want it to be all about them. Coaching is uninspired and lacks any kind of creativity. Ownership is just getting bent over by players and in turn is bending over the fans. I’ve been a leaf fan for 23 years – really losing any and all hope of a cup ever coming back to Toronto. It’ll just be where old free agents go to make their pay day and never deliver anything. I don’t give a fuck how many times Matthews wins the regular season MVP award, means fuck all, no one will remember you for that, people remember players who win cups.
What a dogshit attitude from Auston.
Trade him. Not even fucking joking.
I don’t dislike Siegel but he truly is the captain of braindead takes. I always take his opinions with a grain of salt the size of a Himilayan Rock Salt Lamp.
I mean go get your money just don’t be surprised when fans treat you like a mercenary for acting like one.
It is a business but being all about money doesn’t leave much room for sentiment. Lack of success and heart really doesn’t help but I have Mo and others to like for sentiment which would be enough if Matthews shows up in the second round. Same with Marner, he went from the local kid I gave a lot of slack to, and became a mercenary I really just care if he performs or not. Team should have played much harder while they were still RFA’s.
McJesus left a few million on the table while still getting a massive payday. It seems like every other top player makes sure their paid properly but will sacrifice a little of their pie if it makes the team significantly more competitive. Those margins make a difference between top teams and that’s a win/win for most stars but not ours, seems like a pretty big handicap directly and indirectly since its hard for it not to trickle down to others.
To Matthews credit seems like no dirt slinging or anything unpleasant. Just a policy of not leaving a cent on the table.
Leafs are never winning anything at this rate lol
For fuck’s sake I’m so tired of this shit. Do they want to win or not? You can give yourself the best chance of building a winning team OR you can squeeze out every fucking penny you can get on short term deals.
No wonder this team has never gone anywhere.
Time to play tough shit. Loyalty is a two way street. If they insist on only doing what’s best for them, we do what’s best for the team. That means trading them for the best possible return and building a much deeper all around team instead of caving to their demands.
The salary cap is going up for everyone else – don’t see why these arguments only ever seen to apply to us.
No way in hell would I pay him 14.5 million a season. He won personal awards good for him. But where is he in the playoffs when he is needed the most? Invisible
I’d pay Nylander what he’s worth before I’d pay Matthews what he thinks he’s worth.