[Athletic] – Quelles stars de la LNH ont de bons contrats ? C’est le retour de Cap Court, avec un twist

2 Comments

1. Spiritual_Bourbon 1 an ago

   ## Tage Thompson, Sabres

   **The details:** Last summer, on the heels of what we assumed was a career year, Thompson signed a seven-year, $50 million extension that carries an annoyingly specific AAV of $7,142,857. It kicks in this year and runs through 2030.

   The case that it’s a great contract: Yeah, about that career year — it turned out it was just a stepping stone to an even bigger breakout, with Thompson falling just short of 50 goals and 100 points last year while becoming one of the stories of the season.

   He’s only 25, he’s a dominant offensive force, he’s nine feet tall and makes just a shade over $7 million. What are we even doing here? It’s easily a great contract.

   **The case that it might be merely good:** If Thompson can keep up this level of production, or anything even all that close, then this one’s a no-brainer. The question is whether he actually will, and that does feel like a question if only because we’ve never seen a career curve quite like this before. He went from first-round pick to trade bait to maligned bust, then somehow leveled up into a megastar in just two seasons.

   At the very least, you have to wonder if he’ll settle in at something closer to his 2021-22 level than last year’s version. And if so, his contract is good value, but not a total steal.

   **Key witnesses:** Thompson has the same extension as Kyle Connor and Kevin Hayes, and makes just a shade under what Clayton Keller and Nico Hischier do. If we toss out Hayes as a UFA outlier, that’s decent company for Thompson. He’s the least established star of the group, but nobody else has hit his ceiling.

   **The verdict:** It does feel like there’s a little more risk here than on similar deals (and that’s before getting into the up-and-down injury history of guys with Thompson’s size). But as with any risk, the question turns to what the downside is. Even if Thompson settles in as closer to a 35-goal, 70-point player, he’s still worth the cap hit. When the floor is “good deal we can happily live with” and the ceiling is “unstoppable monster making just $7 million,” that sure feels like a great contract to me.

   ## Roope Hintz, Stars

   **The verdict:** There’s no question that the contract works for the Stars, and it has the potential to be a big win for the team if Hintz can find another offensive level. For now, I’m going to say it’s good but not quite at the level we’re looking for to get the “great” label.

   ## Ilya Sorokin, Islanders

   **The verdict:** There won’t be many better values in the league than Sorokin at a cap hit of just $4 million this year, but that’s not the contract that’s on trial here. It’s the extension, one that will kick in just as he’s turning 29 and run until he’s 37. Even with a rising cap hit, it will be a while before that second tier of goalies catches up to Sorokin’s $8.25 million, meaning he has to play at an elite level for most of this deal for it to be worth it.

   Can he do it? Yes, pretty clearly, at least based on what we’ve seen so far. This contract is a gamble for the Islanders because it’s max length for a goalie, but you can absolutely see why they were willing to take it. The odds are it ends up being well worth it, and there’s a solid chance Sorokin wins a Vezina or two over the next few years while goalie pay shoots up around the league. All that said, I feel like the unpredictability of the position sets the bar a great deal higher for a goalie than anyone else, and I’m not sure even this one is quite there. I’m putting it down as very good but not quite great, even as I’m willing to eat those words in a few years.

   ## Brady Tkachuk, Senators

   **The verdict:** It’s a great contact… for the Senators, given how important it was for them to lock Tkachuk up back in 2021. Back then, the franchise was still stinging from the departure of guys like Erik Karlsson and Mark Stone, and there was reason to wonder if the Eugene Melnyk era was going to drive away every star player the team developed. Tkachuk planted his flag, Stützle followed, and now the future looks a lot brighter.

   We’re not grading on a team-based curve here, so I’m going to say that Tkachuk’s deal falls just short of a “great” label. It’s close, and if it had a few more years to run that might tip the scales. As it stands, I don’t think it quite gets there unless Tkachuk turns into a guy who can at least flirt with 50 goals. He might, but he’s not there yet.

   ## Quinn Hughes, Canucks

   **The verdict:** I’ll admit, I find Hughes to be one of the more fascinating players out there. He was supposed to be a Norris-worthy stud and hasn’t quite hit that level yet, although you wonder how much the team around him has to do with that. You’re still willing to bet on the upside here, to the extent you wish his current deal was longer. But the question here is whether a contract is great, not whether it’s perfect, and I keep going back to those comparables. I don’t think it’s a slam dunk, but I’ll plant my flag on upside and say this is still a great contract for the Canucks.

2. punkr0x 1 an ago

   I think Tage is only going to get better. He figured out how to use his size 2 years ago. His injury last year was the only thing that prevented him from hitting 50. Teams target him hard which they won’t be able to do as the rest of our young players improve.

   After 21-22 I thought Tage had peaked, but now I’m all in. 60 goals in 23-24.