If you read through the article, they essentially say that they personally expect the Devils to exceed this projection, but this is based on Dom’s model which deals with data from a few years, so a team like the Devils that had one great year after several bad ones gets « underrated » – or maybe a better way to say it is the model wants to see them do it again before confidently projecting them to be as good of a team (or better) than they were last year.
specifichero101
This is the most reasonably tempered expectations. Should finish well in the league, but not clear cut favourites. Personally think they can finish top 5, no lower than 3rd in the conference though.
lapelhero
I think it’s a fair assessment. We all assume it’ll be beyond that but 89% chance to make the playoffs with the turnover on defense is pretty good overall. The model also doesn’t like Schmid because of his sample size so it’s definitely something to take with a grain of salt. That being said it’ll be fun to see where the teams goes.
Will Nico be ppg again, will Timo find his game in NJ, how will the PP go and will Luke be good out the gate? All fun questions.
Regardless I love the “how good will they be” versus the “will they be good” of years past.
MartysBetter29
I think this is fair and accurate. With all those great 90s and 2000s teams, the Devils have 11 103+pt seasons in 40 years. They dont just happen.
xxfatpigxx
Solid analysis in the article. Basically the boys are poised to make another solid run this season but everyone just needs to see them prove it and that last season wasn’t some massive outlier. That and seeing if the kids can make that next step into the NHL without too many hiccups.
Can’t believe we’re almost at the regular season after this long of a summer!
atoms12123
The big thing I took away from the article was that we have the best top 6 in hockey outside of the Oilers, who really have the best top 2 and then some guys.
caldo4
They can talk about Severson’s advanced stats (which were great!) but there’s probably a reason his actual GF% was always lower than his xGF% for like 8 years running. It was usually around 50% which is fine but not irreplaceable
Graves I think was kind of fool’s gold. He was good at what he did but got exposed versus teams like Carolina who pressed him. We might miss him in the regular season but I don’t think he matters in the playoffs. Hughes looked so much better versus that forecheck. Same with missing Tatar – was a zero in the playoffs
I get us having fewer points than last year with some new dmen but I don’t think we’re in a worse place come playoff time
Satans_BFF
Can we see this chart from the start of last season? That would be a fun comparison.
sanbaba
Whew, finally a model that doesn’t assume we’re making it all the way. I won’t comment on anything so rosy. This is probably too rosy. I think we got very lucky on injuries last season. But I love to see it!
10 Comments
Source with the corresponding article: https://theathletic.com/4911508/2023/10/02/new-jersey-devils-season-preview-2023-24/
If you read through the article, they essentially say that they personally expect the Devils to exceed this projection, but this is based on Dom’s model which deals with data from a few years, so a team like the Devils that had one great year after several bad ones gets « underrated » – or maybe a better way to say it is the model wants to see them do it again before confidently projecting them to be as good of a team (or better) than they were last year.
This is the most reasonably tempered expectations. Should finish well in the league, but not clear cut favourites. Personally think they can finish top 5, no lower than 3rd in the conference though.
I think it’s a fair assessment. We all assume it’ll be beyond that but 89% chance to make the playoffs with the turnover on defense is pretty good overall. The model also doesn’t like Schmid because of his sample size so it’s definitely something to take with a grain of salt. That being said it’ll be fun to see where the teams goes.
Will Nico be ppg again, will Timo find his game in NJ, how will the PP go and will Luke be good out the gate? All fun questions.
Regardless I love the “how good will they be” versus the “will they be good” of years past.
I think this is fair and accurate. With all those great 90s and 2000s teams, the Devils have 11 103+pt seasons in 40 years. They dont just happen.
Solid analysis in the article. Basically the boys are poised to make another solid run this season but everyone just needs to see them prove it and that last season wasn’t some massive outlier. That and seeing if the kids can make that next step into the NHL without too many hiccups.
Can’t believe we’re almost at the regular season after this long of a summer!
The big thing I took away from the article was that we have the best top 6 in hockey outside of the Oilers, who really have the best top 2 and then some guys.
They can talk about Severson’s advanced stats (which were great!) but there’s probably a reason his actual GF% was always lower than his xGF% for like 8 years running. It was usually around 50% which is fine but not irreplaceable
Graves I think was kind of fool’s gold. He was good at what he did but got exposed versus teams like Carolina who pressed him. We might miss him in the regular season but I don’t think he matters in the playoffs. Hughes looked so much better versus that forecheck. Same with missing Tatar – was a zero in the playoffs
I get us having fewer points than last year with some new dmen but I don’t think we’re in a worse place come playoff time
Can we see this chart from the start of last season? That would be a fun comparison.
Whew, finally a model that doesn’t assume we’re making it all the way. I won’t comment on anything so rosy. This is probably too rosy. I think we got very lucky on injuries last season. But I love to see it!