https://theathletic.com/5066889/2023/11/16/16-stats-mcdavid-canucks-nylander?source=user-shared-article
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Batsinvic888
@Canucks de Vancouver
https://theathletic.com/5066889/2023/11/16/16-stats-mcdavid-canucks-nylander?source=user-shared-article
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Batsinvic888
49 Comments
Holy fuck I hate this dude
He’s just mad he was blasted on twitter by Canucks fans/media after his idiotic comment. Let him hate us.
Honestly, I don’t disagree with what he’s saying in these screenshots and he’s actually giving the team praise for how they’ve been performing
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I can’t imagine watching a hockey team playing unreal (unsustainably) good hockey and being like, but actually this is bad because of maths.
I don’t disagree with this guy, but at the same time, he’s an ego-maniac dickhead and I prefer not seeing anything about him in our subreddit quite honestly.
This makes sense to me. What he’s saying, using nerd speak, is:
« This team is on the hot streak of all hot streak’s right now. This clearly isn’t sustainable. The good news is that the very few teams that have ever been this hot, generally all make the playoffs. They should use the time they’ve bought themselves to sort out their system issues to better control play. »
None of that is especially controversial and strikes me as a reasonable take.
Dom is part of the reason so many hate analytics. We know the Canucks have been a bit lucky so far, but the constant talk about regression is trying to take the enjoyment out of watching
Does he think Demko is trash because I dont think our goaltending has been over the top insane superb since the start of the season, just demko doin demko things and desmith being solid and for once the team giving our goalies goal support
Guys a goof for sure
Dom in shambles
Bud should put the pencil and calculator down and maybe enjoy watching some hockey.
He can be right and be an ass at the same time. Good analysis
What a wet rag
(This is accurate)
The start we’ve had has exceeded the highest expectations of even the most optimistic Canuck fangirls. Not even Connor Bedard could have predicted how good of a start we’re having before this season began. Being a Canucks fan is like being in an abusive relationship, cuz deep down I think we’re all a little insecure that maybe this regression thing is coming. I’m glad we’re doing well and am enjoying it, but I’m clenching my asscheeks cuz I’m fully expecting to be fucked up the butthole when the soap drops.
Controlling the play a little better??? Better than we already are?
I mean the 2018 Caps won the Stanley Cup so
Dude, Im just gonna watch amazing canucks hockey and enjoy, and I suggest you all do the same, and ignore what others have to say about it.
This guy’s job is to farm engagement however he can, so just stop paying attention maybe?
May be a good time to mention that you can catch Dom with Harman and Quads on Canucks Conversation today!
A lot of bizarre comments here. What he’s saying is absolutely true, and consistent with other opinions among sports writers and, frankly, commentators in this sub. It looks like many folks are reacting more based on personal feelings about Dom than the actual opinion expressed in the screenshots.
The team *is* likely to see a tightening in many of its stats that are based on goal differential. But I’m not worried about it. The stats thus far are skewed by a couple of lopsided wins. We can afford a tightening before it starts impacting wins and losses. And frankly, the fact that these stats have been so favourable for us to this point is a sign that we are a good team.
I actually agree with the take and am sick of people obsessing over this dude.
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But what is with that last sentence? It really does feel like he doesn’t watch games or even highlights. It seems like we have controlled play fairly well this season on aggregate. A couple shit games, maybe one game we won that we should have probably lost, some games with 20 minutes of being the worse team. But I don’t think the problem is that we aren’t controlling play well enough.
I don’t think his model is wrong. Statistics will almost always come with a caveat that their expected outcome will be within a certain range (margin of error) usually about 95% of the time (confidence interval)
It can be both that the model is correct, and also that the Canucks are really good, while also riding an unsustainable hot streak. They can fall back towards earth without crashing and burning and underperforming to the level implied in this post.
There has NEVER been anyone who has looked so forward to a team regressing as much as Dom.
I heard an audible glass shattering sound when the Canucks beat the Habs after the Leafs game, and then again last night.
He was already writing up the obituary for the team and its fans, and then our selfish team forgot to regress for Dom once again.
I have no problem with him calling the Canucks’s success unsustainable, because it is indeed historical, but calling QH a 3B tier defenseman is pretty embarrassing. I hope QH keeps it up and makes him look like an idiot by the end of the season.
This guy is such a clown. Look at those teams. Caps in their prime. Boston in their hay-day. A rangers to that went deep. These are the examples he uses to show the Canucks are…bad?
The only exception is Arizona but their goal diff was only +14 and they were expected -16. That’s different than the other teams over-stomping.
I swear this guy has 0 ability to apply critical thinking to any stat he produces.
God i wish we could just win the cup just to see these peoples reaction
Yeah I’m sure our 3 best players also being the three best players in the league is just a fluke. /s
His analysis isn’t wrong. guys, we’ve been a trash team for a decade and are having an unbelievable, dream like but ultimately unsustainable start to the season. We can enjoy it and acknowledge its not going to last all year. The guy’s a jerk but his commentary is on point.
Dom can be a spiteful little nerd, but every time you guys pop off about some incredibly fucking anodyne observation he makes « because it’s Dom » you come off like reactionary boobs. No fucking shit the Canucks are due for regression at some point, that is not a controversial position to take. We’ve had a soft schedule and some unbelievably efficient finishing to go alongside all world net-minding. Regression doesn’t mean « oh no, we suck again », it means we’re not going to finish the year with a +300 goal differential and all ten of the league’s top scorers.
I know we all come by the inferiority complex honestly but for pity’s sake can we at least keep it in-market? Showing our asses like this to a national writer is just embarrassing.
This is such boring, safe prediction. It boils down to:
> The team is doing well, at some nebulous point in the future they will likely be doing less well
Thanks for the massive insight. I hope they pay you a lot for it.
If he wants to show what a good sports analyst he is then I’d much rather he focus on why this hot streak is going on so long. Yeah, luck is part of it but also the most boring, safe answer.
There is got to be more in the data. Stop being a doomer predicting what everyone already knows and start asking how the hot streak has maintained this long.
He’s not wrong. Anyone who thinks the team is gonna keep this pace up and not encounter a regression is also planning a parade.
Cool story. Next…
So, regardless of visceral reaction, Give Dom his due, he is a pretty accurate and enduring data-driven analyst. We may not like what he says but he is generally more accurate than not over time.
The reality is that, like it or not, the Canucks cannot and will not maintain this level of ply; let’s enjoy what we have right now and hope / expect that the team maintain enough systems-based play over the season to get into the playoffs. At that point, this team could do something really special.
Let’s see enjoy the ride now and aim for the playoffs, with EP40 signed before the All-Star Break to a long term deal.
No one wants to see this team succeed it seems. The team and it’s fans deserve this stretch and we don’t need anyone telling us it won’t last. Let’s enjoy the awesome hockey we have been watching this season for as long as it lasts. Personally I know even if they struggle again I’ll still never stop cheering for them. I want this to continue and I hope it does but I don’t think Canucks fans are delusional we are just motivated and supporting our team that’s playing their hearts out for us.
Worth noting that of those 5 teams that made the playoffs, one won the president’s trophy (09-10 caps), three won their division (09-10 caps, both bruins teams), and one won the Cup (17-18 caps). It’s not bad company to be in overall
We could win the cup, and he’d downplay it, or mention that we « can’t keep winning cups every year because it’s unsustainable… »
I think that people are just sick of the media always being crappy to Vancouver.
10 games in « its too small a sample size to tell if they are good.
Lose ONE game, « SEE! THAT PROVES THEY ARE TERRIBLE! »
We are this far into the season now, and so many are acting like its too soon… But when ONE game is lost, thats all the time they need.. Its just getting really old.
Meanwhile, Toronto went 1 game above 500 and the media is like « plan the parade!!“
If you roll a weighted dice, you will not expect to get an even distribution for every outcome.
We have better goaltending then average. That’s our weighted dice.
Dom is also misusing / misunderstanding the basics of stats. Just because you flipped heads 10 times in a row, it’s got no bearing on your next coin flip.
I hope that no one is trying to build their statistics understanding based on Dom and Drance. However it’s a good thing if it gets people interested in stats.
I get the sense that he looks at the numbers then says « they need to control play more » rather than actually look at the game and how they’re actually controlling play. The low shot percentage is due to them constantly pulling off Sedin « shifts » and cycling forever until the perfect shot appears.
Reckoning? Only two of the teams in his analysis had a negative goal differential after their « hot streak », one of them being the Coyotes. The rest still had a positive or basically even differential. That’s still winning hockey and fine by me.
So if his point is that the Canucks won’t continue to blow teams away 10-1, 8-1, 6-2, 5-0, then sure I think everyone agrees with that. Doesn’t mean that their win-loss record will regress, which is what he continuously insinuates.
Even the advanced stats are skewed by the fact that the Canucks are in the lead so often. They lose the shots for and Corsi battle, because they have and hold onto the lead. How many 3rd period goals does this team give up?
Was there any postscript that he still thinks Quinn Hughes sucks?
Everyone is arguing about ‘Dom this’ or ‘Dom that’ or ‘heh nerds am i right guys’?
I’m just seeing the 2017-18 Capitals on that list and have decided the Canucks are winning the Cup this year. Whale team stonks up!
I hate the word sustainable. As if these clowns know
Just cross our fingers we don’t regress until next year.
tl;dr – « Don’t get too cocky, Canucks » but with stats.
Everything I’ve learned about this nerd has been against my will. I’ve never even heard his name pronounced in real life.
Boston goal differential is also way higher than it should be compare to expected, so is Vegas
Hard to keep this record up but I have watched most Canucks games and some other teams games. The Canucks look like a fast team that’s working hard together. It is very promising currently. Playoffs are always the real test anyways
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.