I think we’ve been using Tavares all wrong by forcing him to be a netfront presense. The attached stats tell the story pretty clearly. Our strategy has been to get Tavares tons of shot attempts from up close – he’s in the 99th percentile. But he is actually pretty bad at finishing there (11.6% shooting percentage, vs league average 16.9%).
His mid-range game is still great. He’s 5 percentage points above league average for mid-range shot attempts.
What makes this more important is that he’s our netfront guy on the powerplay, and I think that’s a big reason why it has struggled. We’ll use Nylander as an indicator for PP1, since he was on that unit and healthy all season. We’ll compare the powerplay with Tavares and with Bertuzzi (who had double the close range shooting percentage at 22.8%), who took over the netfront role for a while on PP1.
Nylander and Tavares (without Bertuzzi) scored 32 goals in 201 minutes, or about 0.16 goals per minute of powerplay time.
Nylander and Bertuzzi (without Tavares) scored 9 goals in 37 minutes, or about 0.24 goals per minute of powerplay time. 50% more effective.
For context, Edmonton’s powerplay with McDavid, Drai, and Hyman scored 51 goals in 223 minutes, or about 0.23 goals per minute of powerplay time. When we swapped Tavares off of PP1, it performed better than Edmonton’s.
Tavares is still a great player – he just needs to be in that mid-range slot, not up close to the net. That’s why I really like line ups where he’s driving his own line as a skilled mid-range player, rather than a gritty netfront guy, and when he’s leading PP2 with someone else taking that netfront role on powerplay 1.
LtColumbo93
Moving John Tipvares away from the net front?? Idk about that …
Unwise1
Love the username.
If you go back to 2009-10 when he entered the league and then continue on to the most recent season, there isn’t a single season where JT doesn’t produce the majority of his goals below the hash marks, within 6 feet. The man is top 100 points all time and he’s done it with his skate at the crease. Dude can battle with the best of em.
Szwedo
He needs to be moved to PP2, and not as the screen…to your point
CancerFreeLeafs
put willy at net front. blud is ben simmonds and terrified to shoot. might as well try to bank some goals off his body.
irlfriendsknowoldacc
Shooting percentage is not a stat I particularly care about when you restrict it to just net front. Theres chaos in front of the net and guys will get 4 or 5 whacks at the puck sometimes. That might result in a 20% shotting percentage, but still a goal.
Look at the other 2 stats, he is in ithe 99th percentile for shots and the 94th percentile for goals LOL.
dingleberry51
Problem is he sucks in open ice. Several times per game he’ll have the puck with space but either get caught cuz he’s too slow or just mishandle and lose it or be forced to make a bad play. I wouldn’t really want him as a puck handler or even bumper on a PP
NEWaytheWIND
Great post, OP. I was actually thinking about this the other day, so I’m happy to see someone put in the hard work and show Johnny’s strengths off smartly!
You have to wonder if John should go down to PP2, where he can be more of a factor and doubly less of a drag. If Knies continues along his development curve, I don’t see why they can’t play him netfront on PP1 in October.
thisIsAWorkAccount-1
This all adds up to one of the biggest issues I feel with the powerplay, the five best skaters don’t make a cohesive group for Powerplays. I have felt for a few years we have gone on heaters purely based on the skill of our players and not due to anything structural or procedural, which is odd for a front office/coaching stuff that trusted the process.
When I see this and your comments I see a formation of
Guy (Whomever we wish)
Nylander – Tavares – Matthews
Rielly (or OEL/Lilly for a RHD)
That is three players who can snipe from mid range and Willy can distribute. If we wanted Marner there and Tavares can sag for that low to high they like to play we can do that. But I agree with your logic on pushing him a bit further out.
jimmie9393
So who is on your PP1 and PP 2
Here is what mine would look like
PP1
Matthews= Right flank
Nylander= Left Flank
Domi= Bumper
Knies= Net Front
OEL= Point
PP2
Robertson= Right flank (if here)
Marner= Left Flank
Tavares= Bumper
McMann= Net Front
Rielly= Point
10 Comments
I think we’ve been using Tavares all wrong by forcing him to be a netfront presense. The attached stats tell the story pretty clearly. Our strategy has been to get Tavares tons of shot attempts from up close – he’s in the 99th percentile. But he is actually pretty bad at finishing there (11.6% shooting percentage, vs league average 16.9%).
His mid-range game is still great. He’s 5 percentage points above league average for mid-range shot attempts.
What makes this more important is that he’s our netfront guy on the powerplay, and I think that’s a big reason why it has struggled. We’ll use Nylander as an indicator for PP1, since he was on that unit and healthy all season. We’ll compare the powerplay with Tavares and with Bertuzzi (who had double the close range shooting percentage at 22.8%), who took over the netfront role for a while on PP1.
Nylander and Tavares (without Bertuzzi) scored 32 goals in 201 minutes, or about 0.16 goals per minute of powerplay time.
Nylander and Bertuzzi (without Tavares) scored 9 goals in 37 minutes, or about 0.24 goals per minute of powerplay time. 50% more effective.
For context, Edmonton’s powerplay with McDavid, Drai, and Hyman scored 51 goals in 223 minutes, or about 0.23 goals per minute of powerplay time. When we swapped Tavares off of PP1, it performed better than Edmonton’s.
Tavares is still a great player – he just needs to be in that mid-range slot, not up close to the net. That’s why I really like line ups where he’s driving his own line as a skilled mid-range player, rather than a gritty netfront guy, and when he’s leading PP2 with someone else taking that netfront role on powerplay 1.
Moving John Tipvares away from the net front?? Idk about that …
Love the username.
If you go back to 2009-10 when he entered the league and then continue on to the most recent season, there isn’t a single season where JT doesn’t produce the majority of his goals below the hash marks, within 6 feet. The man is top 100 points all time and he’s done it with his skate at the crease. Dude can battle with the best of em.
He needs to be moved to PP2, and not as the screen…to your point
put willy at net front. blud is ben simmonds and terrified to shoot. might as well try to bank some goals off his body.
Shooting percentage is not a stat I particularly care about when you restrict it to just net front. Theres chaos in front of the net and guys will get 4 or 5 whacks at the puck sometimes. That might result in a 20% shotting percentage, but still a goal.
Look at the other 2 stats, he is in ithe 99th percentile for shots and the 94th percentile for goals LOL.
Problem is he sucks in open ice. Several times per game he’ll have the puck with space but either get caught cuz he’s too slow or just mishandle and lose it or be forced to make a bad play. I wouldn’t really want him as a puck handler or even bumper on a PP
Great post, OP. I was actually thinking about this the other day, so I’m happy to see someone put in the hard work and show Johnny’s strengths off smartly!
You have to wonder if John should go down to PP2, where he can be more of a factor and doubly less of a drag. If Knies continues along his development curve, I don’t see why they can’t play him netfront on PP1 in October.
This all adds up to one of the biggest issues I feel with the powerplay, the five best skaters don’t make a cohesive group for Powerplays. I have felt for a few years we have gone on heaters purely based on the skill of our players and not due to anything structural or procedural, which is odd for a front office/coaching stuff that trusted the process.
When I see this and your comments I see a formation of
Guy (Whomever we wish)
Nylander – Tavares – Matthews
Rielly (or OEL/Lilly for a RHD)
That is three players who can snipe from mid range and Willy can distribute. If we wanted Marner there and Tavares can sag for that low to high they like to play we can do that. But I agree with your logic on pushing him a bit further out.
So who is on your PP1 and PP 2
Here is what mine would look like
PP1
Matthews= Right flank
Nylander= Left Flank
Domi= Bumper
Knies= Net Front
OEL= Point
PP2
Robertson= Right flank (if here)
Marner= Left Flank
Tavares= Bumper
McMann= Net Front
Rielly= Point