[The Athletic] Prévisions du plafond salarial des Sabres de Buffalo : quel est l’impact de JJ Peterka et d’autres appels d’offres sur les dépenses futures ?
—
seeldoger47
@Sabres de Buffalo
[The Athletic] Prévisions du plafond salarial des Sabres de Buffalo : quel est l’impact de JJ Peterka et d’autres appels d’offres sur les dépenses futures ?
—
seeldoger47
3 Comments
> Should the Sabres have spent more? You could make that case considering every playoff team in the NHL last season spent within $2 million of the salary cap. But the Sabres are still leaning heavily on entry-level contracts with Jack Quinn, JJ Peterka and Zach Benson all playing in their top six. Adams is in his fifth season as general manager and hasn’t made the playoffs. Knowing the expectations, he feels he’s spent enough to build a playoff-contending roster. He might be right. With rebound seasons from some of Buffalo’s top scorers, better play from the bottom six and a new coach in Lindy Ruff, Adams might have done enough.
>The other point Adams made before the season is one he’s made before about the need to balance future spending.
>Right now, the Sabres have $60.9 million in cap commitments next season with 12 players under contract. If we assume a $4 million salary cap increase, that would mean a $92 million cap ceiling and just over $31.1 million in cap space next season for Buffalo. That accounts for Jordan Greenway, Aube-Kubel, Zucker, Jokiharju, Jacob Bryson and Reimer all coming off the books. But the biggest factor is that Peterka, Quinn, McLeod, defenseman Bowen Byram and goalie Devon Levi will all be restricted free agents. How much will that cost the Sabres?
>Let’s use AFP Analytics’ July 1 extension projections as a benchmark to gauge what the Sabres could be dealing with their five big-name restricted free agents. We are using AFP’s projections assuming a $92 million cap baking in the $4 million increase that’s expected.
>JJ Peterka, LW
AFP Long-term projection: 6 years, $7,629,705 cap hit
AFP Short-term projection: 2 years, $5,116,800 cap hit
>Jack Quinn, RW
AFP Long-term projection: 6 years, $7,139,200 per year
AFP Short-term projection: 2 years, $4,186,000 per year
>Bowen Byram, D
AFP Long-term projection: 5 years, $6,443,066 per year
AFP Short-term projection: 2 years, $4,756,4000 per year
>Ryan McLeod, C
AFP Projection: 3 years, $2,982,525 per year
>Devon Levi, G
AFP Projection: 2 years, $1,455,440 per year
>**Do the Sabres have enough for all of these contracts?**
>The short answer is yes. If they signed Peterka and Quinn long term, signed Byram short term and got McLeod and Levi signed for the term and cap hit AFP projects, that would be roughly $23.9 million in salary cap space. You could shave $3 million off that by doing a shorter-term deal for Quinn. And performance could obviously cause these numbers to shift. Agents and players know the salary cap is increasing, so these players would need a strong offer to consider signing before putting up another season of production.
>Using that $23.9 million estimate, the Sabres would still have just over $7 million in cap space to add to the roster with six roster spots to fill. Going shorter term on Quinn would leave $10 million for those six spots. Trading Connor Clifton would open up $3.33 million in cap space but also create another hole at right defense. The big spot to fill would be Jokiharju’s, but other than that the Sabres would need to replace Greenway and Zucker on the third line and Aube-Kubel on the fourth line. Jiří Kulich will fill a spot on an entry-level contract. Konsta Helenius and Isak Rosen could be ready, too. The Sabres still wouldn’t be in salary-cap trouble, but they would be forced to spend closer to the cap to fill the remaining holes on the roster.
>**Should they really lock up a core that hasn’t won?**
>That’s the question Adams has to figure out. It might be why the team is waiting to sign some of these players. It’s also why a bridge deal for Byram and possibly for Quinn could make sense. While not every contract the Sabres have signed has aged perfectly, I’m not sure any of them are a problem at this point. They could trade any of the players they have extended to long-term contracts without issue. What I tried to outline here is the scenario Adams has said he’s preparing for. It would be a good problem for the Sabres to have if all of these players perform well enough to warrant contract extensions. It would also give the Sabres little choice but to spend closer to the cap ceiling. This also shows the importance of Buffalo’s prospect pool. They will need entry-level contracts to fill key spots in the lineup as soon as next season.
I don’t know if this is a hot take but if Quinn stays healthy he’s making as much as Peterka if not more. The only thing Peterka has been better at is staying healthy (which isn’t nothing).
Pay JJ all of the monies. All of them.
He is our best forward and getting better.
Pay him. Whatever you pay him it will be a deal 300 days after the ink is dry.