[The Athletic] Aperçu de la saison 2022-23 du Seattle Kraken: chances en séries éliminatoires, points projetés, classement de la liste

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1. SiccSemperTyrannis 2 ans ago

   Some excerpts from the article. The entire thing is well worth reading.

   >… Beniers comes in with a much loftier projection than most rookies usually start with: 2.1 wins. The production he flashed during his 10-game stint is a big part of that and was already enough to expect top-line scoring. Too soon? Almost definitely. Ten games is not much of anything to go on, but the model can handle that – to the best of its ability anyway. There are large error bars attached to a projection based on 10 games, but it regresses heavily based on just how small the sample size is. …

   >… Philipp Grubauer finished dead last in the league in goals saved above expected, allowing 31.5. It was far from ideal in his first year as a bonafide starter for the Kraken. Seattle may have struggled offensively in its inaugural season, but the Kraken were actually a strong defensive team that did well to protect the slot at even strength. This was not the worst defensive team that Grubauer ever played for in terms of shot volume or quality against. But if the team allowed a quality chance to get past them, they often weren’t getting the save to cancel it out. Grubauer actually stopped more tips and deflections above expected, along with backhands. But wrist and snap shots beat him from all over the ice. …

   >…Neither player’s [Eberle & Schwartz] placement in the core is as offensive as Adam Larsson’s however, one of the lowest rated “core” pieces of any team with a GSVA of minus-0.6 wins. Larsson offers next to nothing on offense – that much has been true for a long time – and unfortunately didn’t add much defensively last year either. Only Dunn was on the ice for more expected goals against. Combine that with Larsson’s offensive ineptitude and the Kraken defender ranked dead last in expected goals percentage and wasn’t far off the bottom in actual goals percentage either. …

   >… Competent play from Grubauer, even if nothing else changes, will be enough to prevent a repeat of their first-season horror show. Adding some offensive talent — even it’s just a full season’s worth of Beniers and 60 points from Burakovsky — will go a long way, too.

   >The ceiling is still low, though, and no team seems better suited to split the difference between their best- and worst-case scenario than Seattle. Not every player positively regresses, and Grubauer’s play was bad enough to make you wonder just how much of a Colorado creation he may be. If he’s in the same neighborhood as last season, or if he gets hurt and forces, say, Jones into action — or if the Kraken take a step back defensively — things could get ugly in a hurry, and another projection could be wrong.