> Going back to 2007-08, I looked into every team’s game-by-game expected goals results to look for distinct seven-game segments where they averaged an expected goal differential of at least 1.75 per game (the Devils are at 1.79). There were just 47 instances by 16 different teams over the last 15 years — essentially one team per season.
> On average, those teams had a full season expected goal differential of 53.8, a full season actual goal differential of 50.2 and 108.6 points.
> More importantly, every single one of them made the playoffs with only two teams failing to break 100 points.
> I also lowered the above threshold to an expected goal differential of 1.5 per game […]
> Of the 47 teams, five ended up missing with the closest comparable likely being the 2017-18 Carolina Hurricanes. At the time they were arguably in a similar space to the Devils. Perennial preseason favourites ready to take the next step thanks to an exciting young core and shiny underlying metrics — only to be undone by poor shooting, goaltending or both
armchaircommanderdad
It’s nice to be toward the end of October and still feel good about the season.
I hope there’s still positive buzz about us at thanksgiving
2 Comments
> Going back to 2007-08, I looked into every team’s game-by-game expected goals results to look for distinct seven-game segments where they averaged an expected goal differential of at least 1.75 per game (the Devils are at 1.79). There were just 47 instances by 16 different teams over the last 15 years — essentially one team per season.
> On average, those teams had a full season expected goal differential of 53.8, a full season actual goal differential of 50.2 and 108.6 points.
> More importantly, every single one of them made the playoffs with only two teams failing to break 100 points.
> I also lowered the above threshold to an expected goal differential of 1.5 per game […]
> Of the 47 teams, five ended up missing with the closest comparable likely being the 2017-18 Carolina Hurricanes. At the time they were arguably in a similar space to the Devils. Perennial preseason favourites ready to take the next step thanks to an exciting young core and shiny underlying metrics — only to be undone by poor shooting, goaltending or both
It’s nice to be toward the end of October and still feel good about the season.
I hope there’s still positive buzz about us at thanksgiving