[Chace McCallum] Le repêchage de la LNH est devenu considérablement plus efficace au fil du temps. Les chances qu’un choix fasse partie de la LNH augmentent régulièrement au sommet du repêchage pour trouver des joueurs de la LNH
The NHL draft has become dramatically more efficient over time. The odds of a pick making the NHL has been steadily climbing atop the draft for finding NHL players pic.twitter.com/6iGFzGAMU4
— Chace McCallum (@CMhockey66) July 7, 2023
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seeldoger47
3 Comments
>[Accompanying the change is that top picks have on average, become shorter and higher scoring over the same time period](https://twitter.com/CMhockey66/status/1677292919982551040)
Really doesn’t seem like teams even have to do any real scouting anymore. The work is pretty much all done for them by the scouting services. They just have to read the reports, interview the players to weed out the bad attitudes, then rank them based on how they think they fill the team’s needs. The actual drafts are following the mock drafts so closely now that a guy taken more than 10 spots out of his pre draft ranking in the first round is considered a major story.
I’m not sure this conclusion makes sense. Except for some hypothetical variations in the tail end of the last rounds, it’s still the same set of players being drafted into the league. Maybe some teams are enjoying efficiency gains at the expense of others, but if the overall odds of drafting a player that eventually be comes an NHL is increasing across the board then that instead suggests that more fundamental phenomena are at work.
Recent league expansion could be an explanation, with prospects chasing a larger total number of roster spots in the league.
Or it could be that the increasing pace and intensity of the game is pushing older players out faster, making more room for prospects.
Or maybe cap economics is simply forcing more teams to reply more heavily on draft+development over veterans.
Or maybe incoming prospects are just better prepared for the NHL game, either due to increasingly better quality development leagues or the evolution of the game becoming more accommodating for physical characteristics of younger players.
Or maybe reliable indicators of eventual busts are becoming more commonly recognized throughout feeder leagues, scouting networks and sports media analysts, with the effect of discouraging those players from further pursuing unlikely career prospects in the NHL.
It could be many different factors, but it seems like they’re all pretty upstream from the teams drafting these players.