[The Athletic] Analyse approfondie des agents libres de la LNH : analyse des meilleurs centres disponibles sur le marché
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seeldoger47
@Sabres de Buffalo
[The Athletic] Analyse approfondie des agents libres de la LNH : analyse des meilleurs centres disponibles sur le marché
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seeldoger47
2 Comments
1. Sam Reinhart
Look, we know Sam Reinhart almost exclusively plays wing now, but have you seen the rest of the centers available? Someone had to headline this list and it might as well be the belle of the free agency ball who can slot in at center if needed. That’s good enough for us.
With 57 goals and 94 points, Reinhart hit career highs while playing Selke-caliber defense against the toughest opponents every night next to Aleksander Barkov. Reinhart can do it all and that’s going to make him incredibly expensive to sign, but he should be worth it. He is expected to net $10.9 million on a seven-year deal according to Evolving Hockey, right on the money with our valuation.
That would’ve been a shocking figure last summer after a 31-goal, 67-point campaign — just as shocking as Reinhart doing what he did in 2023-24. Neither represents his “true talent” and our $11 million estimation is an expectation borne out of the midpoint.
Over the last two seasons, he’s scored at a 44-goal and 81-point pace which is close to the production he’s projected for next season. And while his goal total fluctuated wildly over the last two seasons, his expected goal totals, 39 and 42, were fairly consistent. Combined, Reinhart is top 10 in the league in creating chances over the last two seasons.
A lot of that may come from the power play, but there may not be many better bumper/net-front players in the league. Those saying he won’t score on 34 percent of his shots again should note that in his previous three seasons, he scored on 29 percent of them (though at a much lower volume).
If that’s all Reinhart was though, he wouldn’t be worth the mega-money deal. It’s his defensive upside that should add an extra few million to his bank account.
Going back to his second season, Reinhart has always been a very consistent play-driver. Aside from one down year in 2019-20, his teams have earned between 0.2 and 0.5 more expected goals per 60 with him on the ice. Every year. He’s been incredibly consistent and, over the last four years, a lot of it has stemmed from off-puck play. In that time frame, his teams have surrendered 0.31 fewer expected goals against per 60 with him on the ice. That’s the third-best mark among forwards and first among top-six forwards. Patrice Bergeron, for context, is at 0.28.
Reinhart is the full package, but the Panthers Effect does give room for pause. I do believe I’ve accounted for his quality of teammates enough to mitigate concern. But at any rate, it is fair to question whether he would score this much on a different power play or defend this well away from Barkov. Especially as a team’s focal point.
In Florida, he’s the team’s third-best forward. At $11 million on a different team, he would have loftier expectations as The Guy. Are those shoes that Reinhart can fill?
1. Steven Stamkos
1. Elias Lindholm
1. Matt Duchene
1. Sean Monahan
1. Chandler Stephenson
1. Adam Henrique
1. Alex Wennberg
1. Teddy Blueger
Who is the last really good UFA signing for the Sabres? The bad outweighs the good by a lot, right? I mean, Johnson, Clifton, Comrie … and if you go way back Leino, Ehrhoff, etc.
Craig Anderson was fine I guess. Who you got?